We will now attempt a position by position analysis for DFS purposes....If I don't list them, I don't consider them playable. I don't need to tell you why because most of it should be obvious.
QB-
DALTON....Great value! Buffalo's secondary can be attacked and gives up Bottom 8 points (a good thing) vs both QB and WR. Close game favors game script. Moderate o/u. Weather in outdoor stadium with rain and cool temps and a bit of a breeze. Not enough to really worry QB production, but should be monitored for changes. Both formats.
Bortles.....Superb value. Only concern is sprained throwing shoulder. Has a couple of nice weapons and should be in a close game. Yeldon is out and Gerhart hasn't shown much either. If they are going to win, it's going to be through the air. HOU is pretty soft this year with a middling secondary and a surprisingly ineffective pass rush. Low-ish o/u is only concern for me outside of injury.
PALMER......Decent value, great floor, nice upside, too. PIT is not as soft as they say, but is middling. Not bottom 10 rank. He has great weapons and is very consistent. Not supposed to be blowout with an ok o/u. Only concern is on the road traveling east along with a warm weather guy playing in borderline snow flurries. Granted, he was in CIN forever. He should be ok.
This is the kind of thing I want to do next week.
Saturday, October 17, 2015
Friday, October 16, 2015
Week 6...
Not that anyone is following, but in case they are.......I can't settle on a format, so I'm going to appear rather schitzophrenic. Oh well.
CAPS players will be CORE players to build your cash LUs around. Lowercase players will be those you fill in rosters with as you mix and match with your core. GPP players are simple dart-throws that have boom/bust value but aren't advisable to play in your cash games.
You should have done a significant amount of research to this point on your own. What you find here is a list of names being continually repeated by "experts" as the better plays of the week.
Simple enough? Let's roll....
DEN @CLE DEN -4 42.5u
Sanders, DThomas, DEN D, Duke Johnson, Barnidge
CIN @ BUF CIN -3 42.5u
DALTON, GIO (DK only), EIFERT, AJ Green, Sanu (GPP)
KC @ MIN MIN -3.5 43.5
AP, Wallace, West (DK), Davis (FD GPP), MACLIN
HOU @ JAX JAX -1 43
Hoyer, Foster, DHOP, Shorts (GPP), Bortles, Hurns, AROB
CHI @ DET DET -3 44
Megatron, Cutler, FORTE, Bennett (scratch-injury quad), MWilson, Abdullah (GPP w/ Riddick hurt)
WAS @ NYJ NYJ -6.5 40.5
IVORY, MARSHALL, Decker, NYJ D
ARI @ PIT ARI -3.5 44.5
PALMER, FITZ, JBrown, CJohnson, LBell, ARI D
MIA @ TEN TEN -1.5 43.5
Miller, Landry, Cam Jordan, Mariota (GPP), WRIGHT, Walker
CAR @ SEA SEA -7 40.5
Olsen (GPP), Lynch (GPP), Baldwin, Sea D
SD @ GB GB -10.5 50.5
LACY, RODGERS, Cobb (GPP), JJones, RRogers, Rivers, WOODY, GATES, Allen, GBay D
BAL @ SF BAL -2 43.5
Kaep (GPP), Hyde, Boldin, Forsett, Aiken
NE @ IND NE -9 54.5
LEWIS, Blount, EDELMAN, BRADY, Gronk, Luck (GPP), Gore, Moncrief
NYG @ PHI PHI -4.5 49
Bradford, JMatthews, Ertz, Eli, Vereen (if ODB sits), Roob (GPP), Donnell
Now, by position...in order of preference...
QB
DALTON, BRADY, PALMER, RODGERS, Bradford, Bortles, Rivers, Eli, Mariota, Kaep, Luck
RB
LEWIS, IVORY, FORTE, FOSTER, WOODY, LACY, AP, Gio, CJohnson, Miller, Hyde, Forsett, Blount, Gore, LBell, Vereen, Lynch
WR
DHOP, LFITZ, EDELMAN, MARSHALL, MACLIN, AROB, WRIGHT, AJ Green, Landry, Allen, Manny Sanders, JJones, Boldin, Moncrief, Decker, Wallace, Baldwin, DThom, Aiken, JMatthews, JBrown, MWilson, Cobb
TE
GATES, EIFERT, Gronk, Barnidge, RRogers, Walker, Donnell, Ertz, Olsen
K
GOSTKOWSKI, McMANUS, Crosby, Tucker
DST
NYJ, DEN, ARI, Sea, GBay, Cin
Good Luck this week!
CAPS players will be CORE players to build your cash LUs around. Lowercase players will be those you fill in rosters with as you mix and match with your core. GPP players are simple dart-throws that have boom/bust value but aren't advisable to play in your cash games.
You should have done a significant amount of research to this point on your own. What you find here is a list of names being continually repeated by "experts" as the better plays of the week.
Simple enough? Let's roll....
DEN @CLE DEN -4 42.5u
Sanders, DThomas, DEN D, Duke Johnson, Barnidge
CIN @ BUF CIN -3 42.5u
DALTON, GIO (DK only), EIFERT, AJ Green, Sanu (GPP)
KC @ MIN MIN -3.5 43.5
AP, Wallace, West (DK), Davis (FD GPP), MACLIN
HOU @ JAX JAX -1 43
Hoyer, Foster, DHOP, Shorts (GPP), Bortles, Hurns, AROB
CHI @ DET DET -3 44
Megatron, Cutler, FORTE, Bennett (scratch-injury quad), MWilson, Abdullah (GPP w/ Riddick hurt)
WAS @ NYJ NYJ -6.5 40.5
IVORY, MARSHALL, Decker, NYJ D
ARI @ PIT ARI -3.5 44.5
PALMER, FITZ, JBrown, CJohnson, LBell, ARI D
MIA @ TEN TEN -1.5 43.5
Miller, Landry, Cam Jordan, Mariota (GPP), WRIGHT, Walker
CAR @ SEA SEA -7 40.5
Olsen (GPP), Lynch (GPP), Baldwin, Sea D
SD @ GB GB -10.5 50.5
LACY, RODGERS, Cobb (GPP), JJones, RRogers, Rivers, WOODY, GATES, Allen, GBay D
BAL @ SF BAL -2 43.5
Kaep (GPP), Hyde, Boldin, Forsett, Aiken
NE @ IND NE -9 54.5
LEWIS, Blount, EDELMAN, BRADY, Gronk, Luck (GPP), Gore, Moncrief
NYG @ PHI PHI -4.5 49
Bradford, JMatthews, Ertz, Eli, Vereen (if ODB sits), Roob (GPP), Donnell
Now, by position...in order of preference...
QB
DALTON, BRADY, PALMER, RODGERS, Bradford, Bortles, Rivers, Eli, Mariota, Kaep, Luck
RB
LEWIS, IVORY, FORTE, FOSTER, WOODY, LACY, AP, Gio, CJohnson, Miller, Hyde, Forsett, Blount, Gore, LBell, Vereen, Lynch
WR
DHOP, LFITZ, EDELMAN, MARSHALL, MACLIN, AROB, WRIGHT, AJ Green, Landry, Allen, Manny Sanders, JJones, Boldin, Moncrief, Decker, Wallace, Baldwin, DThom, Aiken, JMatthews, JBrown, MWilson, Cobb
TE
GATES, EIFERT, Gronk, Barnidge, RRogers, Walker, Donnell, Ertz, Olsen
K
GOSTKOWSKI, McMANUS, Crosby, Tucker
DST
NYJ, DEN, ARI, Sea, GBay, Cin
Good Luck this week!
Monday, September 28, 2015
Week 3 Wrap
DK invested $26.....won $35.
Quarter Arcade...
Entered $2.50.....won $4 on 6 cashing LUs.
Quarter League....
Enetered $2.50....won $1.40 on 2 cashing LUs.
HTH....
Entered $9....won $7.20......4/9
Massive DU....
Entered $4....won $4......cashed 1/2
5k Daily Dollar....
Entered $1.....won $3
$1 League ($200 Guaranteed)...
Entered $1......won $2.50
$1 DU....
Entered $1.....won $2
Giant $2 DU....
Entered $2......won $4
Thu Qtr Arcade....
Entered $0.25......won $0.75
Beginner DU....
Entered $2.....won $2
Beginner TU....
Entered $1.....won $3
FD invested $35.....won $46.50
Quarter Arcade...
Entered $2.50.....won $4 on 6 cashing LUs.
Quarter League....
Enetered $2.50....won $1.40 on 2 cashing LUs.
HTH....
Entered $9....won $7.20......4/9
Massive DU....
Entered $4....won $4......cashed 1/2
5k Daily Dollar....
Entered $1.....won $3
$1 League ($200 Guaranteed)...
Entered $1......won $2.50
$1 DU....
Entered $1.....won $2
Giant $2 DU....
Entered $2......won $4
Thu Qtr Arcade....
Entered $0.25......won $0.75
Beginner DU....
Entered $2.....won $2
Beginner TU....
Entered $1.....won $3
FD invested $35.....won $46.50
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
Week 3....The Short List
Matchups can be found in Write Up post. Here are what I feel are looking like the better plays and values. For cash games, unless noted.
QB(favorite play in bold) FD/DK (bold #s are better value in relation to salary cap)
Brady...................................................8.7/7.7
Palmer.................................................8.1/6.6
RWilson...............................................8.4/7.0
Rodgers...............................................9.1/8.0
Fitzpatrick...........................................6.8/5.1
RB FD/DK
LBell..................................................8.8/7.5
AP.......................................................8.9/7.5
JStewart..............................................6.5/4.9
Forsett................................................7.2/6.0
LMurray.............................................7.0/5.8
Hyde...................................................7.8/5.4*huge diff
Lynch..................................................8.7/7.4
Charles................................................8.7/7.4
WR FD/DK
Garcon.................................................5.9/5.2
ABrown...............................................9.3/8.9
Marshall...............................................7.4/6.2
JMatthews............................................7.1/6.9
Edelman...............................................7.7/7.0
ARob....................................................6.6/5.2
AJ Green...............................................8.0/7.2
Cooper...................................................6.9/6.2
Julio.......................................................9.0/9.0
Fitz........................................................6.7/5.8
JBrown..................................................6.0/5.1
Baldwin................................................6.0/4.0*
Landry...................................................7.6/6.4
Sanders..................................................8.1/7.6
Cobb......................................................8.2/7.3
DHop.....................................................7.8/7.4
TE FD/DK
Cameron................................................5.4/3.8
Bennett..................................................5.6/4.6
Eifert......................................................5.9/4.8
Gronk.....................................................8.4/7.4
Rudolph..................................................5.3/3.3*
Miller......................................................5.8/3.5*
Reed.......................................................5.3/3.8
Kelce......................................................6.4/5.0
DST FD/DK
K FD
QB(favorite play in bold) FD/DK (bold #s are better value in relation to salary cap)
Brady...................................................8.7/7.7
Palmer.................................................8.1/6.6
RWilson...............................................8.4/7.0
Rodgers...............................................9.1/8.0
Fitzpatrick...........................................6.8/5.1
RB FD/DK
LBell..................................................8.8/7.5
AP.......................................................8.9/7.5
JStewart..............................................6.5/4.9
Forsett................................................7.2/6.0
LMurray.............................................7.0/5.8
Hyde...................................................7.8/5.4*huge diff
Lynch..................................................8.7/7.4
Charles................................................8.7/7.4
WR FD/DK
Garcon.................................................5.9/5.2
ABrown...............................................9.3/8.9
Marshall...............................................7.4/6.2
JMatthews............................................7.1/6.9
Edelman...............................................7.7/7.0
ARob....................................................6.6/5.2
AJ Green...............................................8.0/7.2
Cooper...................................................6.9/6.2
Julio.......................................................9.0/9.0
Fitz........................................................6.7/5.8
JBrown..................................................6.0/5.1
Baldwin................................................6.0/4.0*
Landry...................................................7.6/6.4
Sanders..................................................8.1/7.6
Cobb......................................................8.2/7.3
DHop.....................................................7.8/7.4
TE FD/DK
Cameron................................................5.4/3.8
Bennett..................................................5.6/4.6
Eifert......................................................5.9/4.8
Gronk.....................................................8.4/7.4
Rudolph..................................................5.3/3.3*
Miller......................................................5.8/3.5*
Reed.......................................................5.3/3.8
Kelce......................................................6.4/5.0
DST FD/DK
K FD
Week 2 Wrap..
Horrible on FanDuel. Started $146......ended $114.......down $32
Great on DraftKings. Started $50........ended $63..........up $13
Overall........................Started $196.......ended $177.......down $19.
Not the bloodbath it looked like it was going to be. On to week 3.
RBs were terrible. The industry, as a whole, is bitching about losing big amounts. I have yet to hear of any winners, though there are plenty for sure. Weird weeks happen where the usually consistent players post duds. This was generally a bad one.
I was overexposed on FanDuel to Sam Bradford, Jordan Matthews, Marshawn Lynch, Brandin Cooks, and Austin S-Jenkins. Oh, and the STL Rams DST. Only Matthews returned even close to any value. Those 4 LUs were completely sunk.....didn't score 100 pts with any of them.
I moved to DraftKings and committed to diversifying, though I really didn't want to....afraid Lynch, Bradford, and Matthews were can't miss players. This is why we diversify, though. You just never know.
I digress. Turn the page. On to week 3.
Great on DraftKings. Started $50........ended $63..........up $13
Overall........................Started $196.......ended $177.......down $19.
Not the bloodbath it looked like it was going to be. On to week 3.
RBs were terrible. The industry, as a whole, is bitching about losing big amounts. I have yet to hear of any winners, though there are plenty for sure. Weird weeks happen where the usually consistent players post duds. This was generally a bad one.
I was overexposed on FanDuel to Sam Bradford, Jordan Matthews, Marshawn Lynch, Brandin Cooks, and Austin S-Jenkins. Oh, and the STL Rams DST. Only Matthews returned even close to any value. Those 4 LUs were completely sunk.....didn't score 100 pts with any of them.
I moved to DraftKings and committed to diversifying, though I really didn't want to....afraid Lynch, Bradford, and Matthews were can't miss players. This is why we diversify, though. You just never know.
I digress. Turn the page. On to week 3.
Monday, September 21, 2015
Week 3 Write-Up
Week 2 is wrapping tonight, but with Vegas lines out, I'm attempting to think into Week 3 and get a jump on things. Needless to say, Week 2 threw the whole industry of DFS off.....most posted poor performances. Players in bold are value picks. CAPS are premium plays.
WAS @ NYG......NYG -3.....45u
WAS v pass 3......v run 4.....v rec 3
NYG v pass 32......v run 3.....v rec 32
Looks like neither team can be run against. However, NYG can be thrown against.
Cash plays: Garcon, Reed
GPP plays: Cousins, ODB
PIT @ STL......PIT -1.5.....48u
PIT v pass 28........v run 12.........v rec 28
STL v pass 13.......v run 30.........v rec 13
Predictable that PIT has terrible 2ndary. Middling v run. STL isn't known for 2ndary, should be better v run. WAS gashed them for 180+ on ground in week 2. I suspect own% to be high on LBell, but vs #30 run D.....who cares until STL shows better. Bell has high floor and is used in pass game.
Cash plays: Ben, ABROWN, LBELL, MILLER, Bey?
GPP: Wheaton, Bey stacked with Ben!
SDC @ MIN......MIN -1.5.....45.5u
SDC v pass 14.....v run 21.......v rec 14
MIN v pass 12.....v run 24.......v rec 12
AP seems pricey, but is still at top of league. Middling game. Not a lot of excitement. Danny Woodhead has returned 3X value both games this year!
Cash plays: APeterson, Bridgewater, Gordon?, WOODHEAD, Allen
GPP: don't care
TBB @ HOU......HOU -3.5......40u
TBB v pass 16......v run 19......v rec 16
HOU v pass 10......v run 25.....v rec 10
Winston in air is a little scary, but should be able to run effectively early. May need to throw late. Also not an exciting game, especially with low o/u of 40. HOU defense in play at home in low o/u game with ability to rush passer.
Cash plays: Hou DST, DHop, DMartin
GPP: Nothing exciting, maybe Hou DST
PHI @ NYJ.......PHI -2.5.....47.5u
PHI v pass 23......v run 17.......v rec 23
NYJ v pass 17.....v run 14.......v rec 17
Vegas predicts NYJ playing from behind in close game. PHI looks exploitable through air. NYJ couldn't be more average through 2 weeks, even after nice week 1 on DST. Might watch PHI for bounceback after embarrassing week 2.
Cash plays: Fitzpatrick, Marshall, Decker, Ivory?, Bradford, DMurray, JMatthews
GPP: all of above
NOS @ CAR.....CAR -3.5......44u
NOS v pass 18......v run 23..........v rec 18
CAR v pass 7........v run 7............v rec 7
Decent matchup for CAR running game, but do we trust JStew? Decent passing, too, but who? I don't trust any of them outside of GPPs. CAR defense is strong and to be avoided across board this week.
Cash plays: CAR DST, JStewart
GPP: Newton, Olsen, Crotchery, Cooks, Coleman, Colston
JAX @ NEP.....NEP -14.....44u
JAX v pass 20......v run 5......v rec 20
NEP v pass 25.....v run 27.....v rec 25
Fire up JAX offense....lol. Seriously, though, NEP D is not great, and can be targeted.
CIN @ BAL.......BAL -1.5.......44.5u
CIN v pass 11......v run 13........v rec 11
BAL v pass 19......v run 11.......v rec 19
Again, no excitement here. AJ and Eifert get targets.
Cash plays: Eifert
GPP:
OAK @ CLE.......CLE -4.5........41.5u
OAK v pass 30......v run 20....... v rec 30
CLE v pass 9.........v run 32.......v rec 9
Looking at matchups, CLE receivers would be great, if there were any. Can run on CLE, so fire up LMurray. CLE D may be sneaky with big lead and OAK traveling east in low o/u game.
Cash plays: TBenjamin, LMurray, CLE DST
GPP: Manziel
IND @ TEN.......IND -5.........47.5u
IND v pass13.....v run 22.........v rec 10
TEN v pass 4.......v run 15........v rec 4
IND and Co may have their hands full getting this one covered.
Cash: Sankey?
GPP: Mariota, Wright
ATL @ DAL........pk........44u
ATL v pass 29......v run 9.........v rec 29
DAL v pass 6.......v run 1.........v rec 6
Can't see DAL hanging with ATL here after Romo/Dez both go down and running game isn't worth squat, unless passing to RBs. However, if bu QB can find receivers, ATL is vulnerable.
Cash plays: FREEMAN, Julio, TWilliams, Beasley
GPP: Wheadon, Ryan, Dunbar
SF @ ARZ......ARZ -6......44u
SF v pass 27......v run 6......v rec 27
ARZ v pass 26.....v run 10......v rec 26
How is this not a shootout? Because SF can't throw? Seems SF receivers will be in play with trying to catch up late. Palmer and ARZ receivers in play. ARZ DST possible, too.
Cash plays: Boldin, PALMER, Fitzgerald, JBrown
GPP: Kaepernick, Torrey Smith
CHI @ SEA........no line yet
CHI v pass 4............v run 22..........v rec 2
SEA v pass 21.........v run 15...........v rec 21
Cash plays: Forte, Lynch, Wilson,
BUF @ MIA.......MIA -2.5.......43.5u
BUF v pass 31.......v run 2........v rec 31
MIA v pass 17.......v run 26......v rec 17
Looks like BUF will run and MIA will throw. Landry seems to be possession WR, so look for him late to move the chains. Tyrod may get to run a bit here.
Cash plays: Tannehill, LANDRY, Tyrod,
GPP: Shady
DEN @ DET......DEN -2.5......45.5u
DEN v pass 1.......v run 18.......v rec 1
DET v pass 22.....v run 27.......v rec 22
Looks to be good matchup for Peyton and receivers.
Cash plays: Peyton, DThom, SANDERS, DEN
KCC @ GBP.....GBP -6.5......48u
KCC v pass 24......v run 8........v rec 24
GBP v pass 8.........v run 31......v rec 8
Highest scoring game on the board is MNF. So, throwing with GBP and running with KCC? Talk about playing into a team's strengths. Fire up Rodgers and his army along with Charles!
Cash: Rodgers, Cobb, Charles, Kelce
GPP:
WAS @ NYG......NYG -3.....45u
WAS v pass 3......v run 4.....v rec 3
NYG v pass 32......v run 3.....v rec 32
Looks like neither team can be run against. However, NYG can be thrown against.
Cash plays: Garcon, Reed
GPP plays: Cousins, ODB
PIT @ STL......PIT -1.5.....48u
PIT v pass 28........v run 12.........v rec 28
STL v pass 13.......v run 30.........v rec 13
Predictable that PIT has terrible 2ndary. Middling v run. STL isn't known for 2ndary, should be better v run. WAS gashed them for 180+ on ground in week 2. I suspect own% to be high on LBell, but vs #30 run D.....who cares until STL shows better. Bell has high floor and is used in pass game.
Cash plays: Ben, ABROWN, LBELL, MILLER, Bey?
GPP: Wheaton, Bey stacked with Ben!
SDC @ MIN......MIN -1.5.....45.5u
SDC v pass 14.....v run 21.......v rec 14
MIN v pass 12.....v run 24.......v rec 12
AP seems pricey, but is still at top of league. Middling game. Not a lot of excitement. Danny Woodhead has returned 3X value both games this year!
Cash plays: APeterson, Bridgewater, Gordon?, WOODHEAD, Allen
GPP: don't care
TBB @ HOU......HOU -3.5......40u
TBB v pass 16......v run 19......v rec 16
HOU v pass 10......v run 25.....v rec 10
Winston in air is a little scary, but should be able to run effectively early. May need to throw late. Also not an exciting game, especially with low o/u of 40. HOU defense in play at home in low o/u game with ability to rush passer.
Cash plays: Hou DST, DHop, DMartin
GPP: Nothing exciting, maybe Hou DST
PHI @ NYJ.......PHI -2.5.....47.5u
PHI v pass 23......v run 17.......v rec 23
NYJ v pass 17.....v run 14.......v rec 17
Vegas predicts NYJ playing from behind in close game. PHI looks exploitable through air. NYJ couldn't be more average through 2 weeks, even after nice week 1 on DST. Might watch PHI for bounceback after embarrassing week 2.
Cash plays: Fitzpatrick, Marshall, Decker, Ivory?, Bradford, DMurray, JMatthews
GPP: all of above
NOS @ CAR.....CAR -3.5......44u
NOS v pass 18......v run 23..........v rec 18
CAR v pass 7........v run 7............v rec 7
Decent matchup for CAR running game, but do we trust JStew? Decent passing, too, but who? I don't trust any of them outside of GPPs. CAR defense is strong and to be avoided across board this week.
Cash plays: CAR DST, JStewart
GPP: Newton, Olsen, Crotchery, Cooks, Coleman, Colston
JAX @ NEP.....NEP -14.....44u
JAX v pass 20......v run 5......v rec 20
NEP v pass 25.....v run 27.....v rec 25
Fire up JAX offense....lol. Seriously, though, NEP D is not great, and can be targeted.
CIN @ BAL.......BAL -1.5.......44.5u
CIN v pass 11......v run 13........v rec 11
BAL v pass 19......v run 11.......v rec 19
Again, no excitement here. AJ and Eifert get targets.
Cash plays: Eifert
GPP:
OAK @ CLE.......CLE -4.5........41.5u
OAK v pass 30......v run 20....... v rec 30
CLE v pass 9.........v run 32.......v rec 9
Looking at matchups, CLE receivers would be great, if there were any. Can run on CLE, so fire up LMurray. CLE D may be sneaky with big lead and OAK traveling east in low o/u game.
Cash plays: TBenjamin, LMurray, CLE DST
GPP: Manziel
IND @ TEN.......IND -5.........47.5u
IND v pass13.....v run 22.........v rec 10
TEN v pass 4.......v run 15........v rec 4
IND and Co may have their hands full getting this one covered.
Cash: Sankey?
GPP: Mariota, Wright
ATL @ DAL........pk........44u
ATL v pass 29......v run 9.........v rec 29
DAL v pass 6.......v run 1.........v rec 6
Can't see DAL hanging with ATL here after Romo/Dez both go down and running game isn't worth squat, unless passing to RBs. However, if bu QB can find receivers, ATL is vulnerable.
Cash plays: FREEMAN, Julio, TWilliams, Beasley
GPP: Wheadon, Ryan, Dunbar
SF @ ARZ......ARZ -6......44u
SF v pass 27......v run 6......v rec 27
ARZ v pass 26.....v run 10......v rec 26
How is this not a shootout? Because SF can't throw? Seems SF receivers will be in play with trying to catch up late. Palmer and ARZ receivers in play. ARZ DST possible, too.
Cash plays: Boldin, PALMER, Fitzgerald, JBrown
GPP: Kaepernick, Torrey Smith
CHI @ SEA........no line yet
CHI v pass 4............v run 22..........v rec 2
SEA v pass 21.........v run 15...........v rec 21
Cash plays: Forte, Lynch, Wilson,
BUF @ MIA.......MIA -2.5.......43.5u
BUF v pass 31.......v run 2........v rec 31
MIA v pass 17.......v run 26......v rec 17
Looks like BUF will run and MIA will throw. Landry seems to be possession WR, so look for him late to move the chains. Tyrod may get to run a bit here.
Cash plays: Tannehill, LANDRY, Tyrod,
GPP: Shady
DEN @ DET......DEN -2.5......45.5u
DEN v pass 1.......v run 18.......v rec 1
DET v pass 22.....v run 27.......v rec 22
Looks to be good matchup for Peyton and receivers.
Cash plays: Peyton, DThom, SANDERS, DEN
KCC @ GBP.....GBP -6.5......48u
KCC v pass 24......v run 8........v rec 24
GBP v pass 8.........v run 31......v rec 8
Highest scoring game on the board is MNF. So, throwing with GBP and running with KCC? Talk about playing into a team's strengths. Fire up Rodgers and his army along with Charles!
Cash: Rodgers, Cobb, Charles, Kelce
GPP:
Thursday, September 17, 2015
DFS Lead Up...
I played last year. I deposited a couple of times, I think, on FanDuel. $20 here, $20 there.....not more than 3 times, if even that. I enjoyed the NFL season. I learned a little about constructing lineups. I don't even know if I was showing some profit, but I got lucky in about week 5 and hit a 2nd place finish in a moderate tourney. I think I won about $200. So, I haven't deposited since and played the rest of the 2014 NFL season, most of the 2015 MLB season, and am now starting on the 2015 NFL season. Granted, MLB took about $60 off that roll......but I learned baseball has WICKED variance. Also, the games get tougher the later the season drags on. The cash lines become tougher to hit.
I'm a low-hanging fruit guy, so I plan to bow out after the All-Star Break next season. I'm trying to maximize this on the NFL season by playing heavy early, while all the buzz is going on, and I'll taper back if I notice games getting tougher. Like a poker table, I don't think I'm the best in the world......but I can promise you I'm not the worst. If it starts to look like I'm the worst, I'm out. I will study, relearn, and come back a little better.
Week 1's results weren't great. I had 10 unique lineups I really liked for various reasons. I put a 5:1 ratio of cash game to GPP on them. And, only one lineup did well. Some did "ok" and some did pretty crappy. I put about $65 on the line of my $167 and returned about $45 for what was a $21 loss for the week. Not terrible, but not good.
In DFS, I sort of play the cash games to grind up small, cumulative wins while entering each lineup in a bigger tourney in case it goes crazy. By "bigger" I'm only talking about 4k player events or smaller. I don't have designs on beating 250k people with some magical lineup, dropping $20 on the entry fee, and taking home the big cardboard check like those guys on tv. That crap is for action-junkies imo, and I'm not one. When it comes to gambling (and let's face it, this is mostly gambling), I'm a pretty mellow dude.
I've said it before, though, I DO try and win when I play. I'm not a fan of losing. I AM pretty competitive. So, in the interest of gathering more info, I might share some sites I like. I did just deposit $50 on DraftKings to trigger a free VIP Package from a site I follow. This package unlocks weekly newsletters, a couple eBooks, and some specific player recommendations from a winning DFS player whose thoughts I really enjoyed last year. He got smart and started charging for his advice. To avoid the $40 membership fee, I dropped $50 into DK with a 100% match on the money (potential to build my $50 to $100 if I hold my bankroll long enough) to keep my money mine. If there's value in the VIP info, I'll gladly do it again next year and pay for it. So, we'll see. You may get some reviews of the package in here, too.
So, that's it. Week 1 in the books.....down $21. Week 2 coming. DraftKings now in play. Information and player picks on the way. Hopefully, things hold up and I post a win or 10. My goal is to play 3 lineups and maybe toss a couple upside lineups into some tourneys and see what happens. I will likely put about 25% of my current bankroll in play ($35 on FD and $15 on DK). Let's roll!
I'm a low-hanging fruit guy, so I plan to bow out after the All-Star Break next season. I'm trying to maximize this on the NFL season by playing heavy early, while all the buzz is going on, and I'll taper back if I notice games getting tougher. Like a poker table, I don't think I'm the best in the world......but I can promise you I'm not the worst. If it starts to look like I'm the worst, I'm out. I will study, relearn, and come back a little better.
Week 1's results weren't great. I had 10 unique lineups I really liked for various reasons. I put a 5:1 ratio of cash game to GPP on them. And, only one lineup did well. Some did "ok" and some did pretty crappy. I put about $65 on the line of my $167 and returned about $45 for what was a $21 loss for the week. Not terrible, but not good.
In DFS, I sort of play the cash games to grind up small, cumulative wins while entering each lineup in a bigger tourney in case it goes crazy. By "bigger" I'm only talking about 4k player events or smaller. I don't have designs on beating 250k people with some magical lineup, dropping $20 on the entry fee, and taking home the big cardboard check like those guys on tv. That crap is for action-junkies imo, and I'm not one. When it comes to gambling (and let's face it, this is mostly gambling), I'm a pretty mellow dude.
I've said it before, though, I DO try and win when I play. I'm not a fan of losing. I AM pretty competitive. So, in the interest of gathering more info, I might share some sites I like. I did just deposit $50 on DraftKings to trigger a free VIP Package from a site I follow. This package unlocks weekly newsletters, a couple eBooks, and some specific player recommendations from a winning DFS player whose thoughts I really enjoyed last year. He got smart and started charging for his advice. To avoid the $40 membership fee, I dropped $50 into DK with a 100% match on the money (potential to build my $50 to $100 if I hold my bankroll long enough) to keep my money mine. If there's value in the VIP info, I'll gladly do it again next year and pay for it. So, we'll see. You may get some reviews of the package in here, too.
So, that's it. Week 1 in the books.....down $21. Week 2 coming. DraftKings now in play. Information and player picks on the way. Hopefully, things hold up and I post a win or 10. My goal is to play 3 lineups and maybe toss a couple upside lineups into some tourneys and see what happens. I will likely put about 25% of my current bankroll in play ($35 on FD and $15 on DK). Let's roll!
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